Current economic trends

Table 1. Gross Output in Main Sectors of Economy
Table 2. Consumer Price Inflation
Table 3. Exchange Rates of AMD
Table 4. Financial Market Interests Rates
Table 5. Main Indicators of State Budget
Table 6. Monetary Survey, as of the end of month
 

Data were updated on January 30, 2016.

 

Table 1. Gross Output in Main Sectors of Economy, to the same period of previous year, %

 

2013

2014

2015

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3

A

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3 A Q1 H1 Q1-Q3 A

 Indicator of Economic Activity

8.7

4.4 3.2

3.5

3.3
3.4 4.3 3.9 2.5 4.2 3.7 3.1

   Agriculture

2.3

2.1

5.5 7.1

5.2

1.4 6.9 7.2 4.5 14.5 11.3 11.7

   Industry

15.8

8.3

7.0 6.8

-2.8

0.0

1.7 2.7 2.0 5.1 4.8 5.2

     Mining

16.5

16.5

10.1

8.1

-1.1

-9.5

-8.8 -7.4 27.7 34.8 40.5 50.4

     Manufacturing

24.4

10.2

8.8 7.6 -4.1 2.9 5.6 6.1 0.6 -2.1 -3.8 -5.6

     Energy

-2.0

-4.8

-2.2

2.6

-0.5

-1.4

-3.3 -0.7 -13.2 3.5 4.7 6.7

     Water supply

12.8

9.1

7.6

7.6

6.1

6.0

6.0 5.9 10.2 9.6 9.9 10.1

   Construction

-6.5

-8.8

-9.2

-8.1

0.7

0.4

-2.4 -4.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.3

   Trade turnover

6.5

3.5

2.1

1.2

4.5

5.6

5.2 1.6 -6.3 -5.1 -5.6 -8.0

   Services (excluding trade)

7.1

4.4

2.8

3.6

3.5

4.0

6.8 7.8 3.9 3.3 2.5 2.7

 External Trade Turnover

4.9

0.8

4.5

5.6

0.6
1.0 3.9 1.0 -28.5 -20.6 -20.0 -20.6

   Exports

14.3

9.9

10.6

7.2

1.8

0.8

1.9 2.7 -23.1 -1.3 -0.9 -3.9

   Imports

2.0

-2.1

2.5

5.1

0.2

1.1

4.6 0.4 -30.5 -27.2 -26.6 -26.5


Table 2. Consumer Price Inflation, 
%

  2013 2014 2015
March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec
 CPI (to the previous month) 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 1.1 -0.4 -1.8 0.4 3.0 -0.1 -1.4 0.1 1.7
   Food products* 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 2.1 -0.8 -3.1 0.6 5.1 -0.8 -2.7 0.0 2.6
   Non-food products 0.8 -0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.9 0.2 1.2 -0.6 0.6 -0.9
   Services 0.2 0.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0
 CPI (to December of previous year) 2.9 2.7 3.2 5.6 1.2 -0.9 -0.8 4.6 2.3
0.0 -2.0 -0.1
   Food products* 4.6 3.2 -0.1 4.0 2.3 -1.4 -2.5 6.3 2.8 -2.4 -6.2 -3.7
   Non-food products 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.5 -0.6 1.2 -0.8 1.6 3.6 4.1 3.6 3.4
   Services 1.1 2.7 10.4 9.7 0.1 0.0 2.4 3.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 3.2
 CPI (to the same month of previous year) 3.4 6.5 8.2 5.6 3.8 1.8 1.5 4.6 5.8
5.5 3.3 -0.1
   Food products* 3.4 8.7 8.0 4.0 1.7 -0.7 1.4 6.3 6.8 5.2 2.3 -3.7
   Non-food products 5.5 4.8 3.4 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.9 1.6 5.8 7.0 6.1 3.4
   Services 2.3 3.4 10.9 9.7 8.6 6.8 1.8 3.0 3.7 4.1 1.6 3.2
 CPI (to the same period of previous year, cumulative) 3.0 4.1 5.6 5.8 4.6 4.0
2.9 3.0 5.1
5.1 4.7 3.7
   Food products* 2.7 4.5 6.0 5.8 3.0 2.2 1.6 2.2 6.3 5.6 4.6 3.0
   Non-food products 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.7 4.4 5.7 5.9 5.6
   Services 2.3 2.6 5.1 6.4 8.7 8.2 6.0 5.1 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.0

* Includes alcoholic beverages and tobacco.


Table 3. Exchange Rates of AMD,
drams

 

2013

2014

2015

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3

A

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3

A

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3

A

 Exchange rate AMD/USD

    Average

409.5

412.2

411.0

409.6

411.0

411.9

410.8 415.9 477.3 476.9 477.7 477.9

    End of period

418.6

409.9

405.3

405.6

413.3

407.3

407.6 475.0 471.1 472.5 473.7 483.8

 Exchange rate AMD/EUR

    Average

541.0

541.3

541.5

544.1

562.9

564.5

556.8 552.1 538.4 532.6 532.8 530.6

    End of period

536.5

535.3

546.8

559.5

569.9

556.1

513.5

577.5

505.3 528.5 531.4 528.7

 Exchange rate AMD/RUR

    Average

13.5

13.3

13.0

12.9

11.7

11.8

11.6

11.0

7.6 8.3 8.1 7.9

    End of period

13.5

12.5

12.5

12.4

11.7

12.0

10.3

8.2

8.1 8.5 7.3 6.6

 


Table 4. Financial Market Interests Rates,
 %

 

2013

2014

2015

March

June

Sept

Dec

March

June

Sept Dec March June Sept Dec
 Government Bonds (yield, weighted average of the securities allocated in primary market)
    Short-term Bonds 9.5 9.0 9.1 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.3 - 13.6 12.1 12.1 11.7
    Medium-term Bonds 15.3 13.9 13.7 10.0 - 10.4 10.1 12.5 14.0 14.7 14.9 16.7
    Long-term Bonds 16.4 15.8 15.6 11.6 - 12.0 11.9 14.0 16.0 16.1 16.5 15.5
 Deposit Rate (<1 year, physical entities)      
     AMD 11.0 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.7 11.7 11.2 13.1 16.0 15.6 15.5 14.9
     USD 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.3 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.6
 Mortgage Loans (physical entities)      
    AMD 12.5 12.0 12.1 13.0 11.6 12.6 12.6 11.9 11.6 11.9  11.7 12.5
    USD 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.4 13.1 12.0 12.2 13.6 13.1 13.0 12.6
 Lending Rate (>1 year, physical entities)
     AMD 18.2 18.1 18.9 19.0 18.5 18.2 18.3 17.8 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.0
     USD 15.2 14.8 14.9 14.7 15.2 14.7 14.2 14.7 16.7 15.9 15.3 15.1
 Lending Rate (>1 year, legal entities)
     AMD 15.1 15.1 16.0 15.6 14.8 15.5 15.0 14.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 13.9
     USD 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.0 11.3 11.6 9.8 10.9 11.2 11.1 10.3 9.9
 CBA Operations Rates
     Repo Agreements
8.0 8.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.75 8.5 10.5 10.5 10.25 8.75
     Deposits Attracted 6.5 6.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.25 7.0 9.0 9.0 8.75 7.25
     Lombard Repo (end of period) 9.5 9.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.25 20.0 13.5 12.0 11.75 10.25

 

Table 5. Main Indicators of State Budget, bln drams

 

2013

2014

2015

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3

A

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3

A

Q1

H1

Q1-Q3

A*

 Revenues, total

232.2

507.2

788.5

1,071.4

243.4 536.6 832.8 1,144.8 249.6 538.5 853.4 1,147.2

   Tax revenues and duties

220.0

479.6

741.6

1,000.9

223.9 500.0 778.2 1,064.1 232.5 501.5 787.3 1,067.9

   Change to the same period of previous year, %

24.1

21.1

18.1

14.0

1.7 4.2 4.9 6.3 3.8 0.3 1.2 0.4

 Expenditures, total

209.8

471.6

742.0

1,142.9

239.6 514.5 827.0 1,235.1 268.3 595.1 961.7 1,378.4

 Deficit (-)/surplus (+)

22.4

35.7

46.5

-71.5

3.8 22.1 5.8 -90.3 -18.6 -56.6
-108.3 -231.2

* Excluding PIU accounts.

 

Table 6. Monetary Survey, as of the end of month, bln drams

 

2013

2014

March*

June*

Sept*

Dec*

March*

June*

July

Aug

Sept

 Broad Money

1,363.9

1,383.1

1,457.9

1,545.4

1,539.0

1,587.6

1,602.4

1,604.9

1,598.4

     Net Foreign Assets of Banking system

-202.9

-230.5

78.3

-141.5

-204.9

-218.4

-208.5

-246.9

-273.8

     Net Domestic Assets of Banking system

1,566.7

1,613.6

1,379.6

1,686.9

1,743.9

1,805.9

1,810.9

1,851.7

1,872.2

     Currency outside Banking system

344.0

351.8

355.3

384.5

328.6

347.6

357.7

365.1

360.4

     Total deposits of Banking system

1,019.8

1,031.3

1,102.6

1,160.9

1,210.5

1,240.0

1,244.7

1,239.7

1,238.0

 Reserve Money (without PIU accounts)

645.0

659.2

722.6

888.1

779.4

713.3

787.4

731.3

718.0

     Net International Reserves

380.0

370.0

678.9

627.8

544.8

474.5

532.6

475.0

454.0

     Net Domestic Assets

265.0

289.2

43.7

260.3

234.6

238.8

254.8

256.3

264.9

     Currency outside the CBA

395.6

404.2

408.1

446.8

382.5

403.3

413.1

422.3

416.6

     Reserves of DMB at the CBA

246.3

252.2

310.4

437.8

391.5

305.3

370.4

304.2

298.0

        AMD accounts

162.0

147.6

181.9

199.0

182.2

171.6

183.6

166.0

177.1

        FX accounts

84.4

104.6

128.5

238.8

209.4

133.7

186.7

138.2

121.0

     Other Accounts at CBA (in AMD & FX, without PIU)

3.0

2.8

4.1

3.4

5.3

4.7

3.9

4.8

4.2

 Money multiplier

2.11

2.10

2.02

1.74

1.97

2.23

2.04

2.19

2.22

* Including the CBA closing entries.