Macroeconomic outlook

The present Section contains projections and estimates of main macroeconomic indicators for Armenia, as well as other countries in the region and the global economy. Sources for projections and estimates are various: Government of Armenia, IMF, World Bank and other international organizations. It may also contain some estimates by independent agencies.


 Table 1.1: RA Government's forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change
 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Actual Budget
2014
MTEF 2015-2017

 GDP

3.5

5.2 4.0 5.0 5.3

5.7

 Inflation, average consumer prices

5.8

5.5

3.0

4.0 4.0

4.0

 Current account balance (% of GDP)

-8.0

-8.6

-9.8

-8.5 -7.9

-7.1

 Exports of goods

8.6

10.0

8.7

9.5 10.0

10.0

 Imports of goods

0.2

4.0

4.0 5.0 5.5

6.0

Abbreviations used:
Budget 2014 - Budget Message of the Government of Armenia for 2014. Budget Law for 2014 was adopted on December 12, 2013;
MTEF 2015-2017 - Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia for 2015-2014, adopted on July 3, 2014.

 

Աղյուսակ 1.2-2: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change

   

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Actual IMF
ADB IMF ADB IMF

 GDP

3.5

3.2

3.8

3.5 4.6 3.7

4.1

 Inflation, average consumer prices

5.8

1.8

4.5

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

 Current account balance (% of GDP)

-8.0

-7.7

-8.7

-7.3

-8.0

-7.1

-6.8

 Exports of goods

8.6

6.8

6.2

5.3

6.5

4.7

4.5

 Imports of goods

0.2

3.3

3.5

4.4

4.3

4.0

3.7

Source: IMFWorld Economic Outlook Databases (Oct 2014); ADBAsian Development Outlook (Sept 2014).
 

Table 1.2-1: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change
 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Actual IMF ADB IMF ADB IMF

 GDP

3.5

4.3

4.6

4.5 5.0 4.7

5.0

 Inflation, average consumer prices

5.8

5.0

4.5

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

 Current account balance (% of GDP)

-8.0

-7.2

-8.7

-6.8

-8.0

-6.6

-6.5

 Exports of goods

8.6

8.8

6.2

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.4

 Imports of goods

0.2

3.3

3.5

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.5

Source: IMFWorld Economic Outlook Databases (April 2014); ADBAsian Development Outlook (April 2014).
 
 
Table 2.1: RA Government's forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2013-2016, % change
  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Actual Budget
2013
MTEF
2014-2016
MTEF
2014-2016
Budget
2014
MTEF
2014-2016
MTEF
2014-2016
 GDP 7.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 5.2 6.3 6.4
 Inflation, average consumer prices
2.6 4.2 4.9 3.5 5.5 4.0 4.0
 Current account balance (% of GDP) -11.2 -9.2 -9.5 -8.0 -8.6 -6.3 -4.3
 Exports of goods
2.5 15.0 10.0 13.5 10.0 14.5 15.5
 Imports of goods
2.2 5.3 4.5 5.0 4.0 5.5 6.0
Abbreviations used:
Budget 2014 - Budget Message of the Government of Armenia for 2014. Budget Law for 2014 was adopted on December 12, 2013; 
MTEF 2014-2016 - Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia for 2014-2016, adopted on July 4, 2013; 
Budget 2013 - Budget Message of the Government of Armenia for 2013. Budget Law for 2013 was adopted on December 5, 2012.
 
 

 

 
Table 2.2: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2013-2016, % change
    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Actual IMF ADB IMF ADB IMF
Oct 2012 Apr 2013 Oct 2012 Apr 2013 Oct 2013 Oct 2013 Oct 2013 Oct 2013
 GDP 7.2 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.6 5.5 5.5
 Inflation, average consumer prices 2.6 4.2 4.2 4.5 3.6 3.5 4.5 4.0 4.0
 Current account balance (% of GDP) -11.2 -9.3 -9.6 -9.8 -9.8 -8.6 -9.6 -7.6 -7.2
 Exports of goods 2.5 3.2 7.6 na 8.5 11.1 na 9.3 9.2
 Imports of goods 2.2 3.9 5.1 na 6.5 3.8 na 5.1 7.0
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Databases (October 2012, April 2013, October 2013); ADB, Asian Development Outlook (October 2012, April 2013, October 2013).

 

 

 

Table 3: IMF, ADB and RA Government's forecast of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2012-2014, % 

 
2011
2012
2013
2014
 
Actual
IMF
ADB
Budget
IMF
ADB
MTEF
IMF
MTEF
Economic growth 
4.7
3.8
3.8
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.0
4.8
Inflation (average)
7.7
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.9
Current account balance/GDP
11.0
-11.0
-11.2
-9.8
-9.5
-10.0
-8.9
-8.4
-7.5
Exports growth
32.6
8.3
8.0
13.5
8.3
11.0
10.5
6.9
9.0
Imports growth
14.3
4.9
4.5
5.2
3.0
6.0
6.0
4.2
5.0
Abbreviations used: IMF – international Monetary Fund, ADB – Asian Development Bank,
Budget – 2012 Budget Message of the Government of Armenia, MTEF - 2012-2014 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia


 IMF forecasts of economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries, %*
 

           *2011-actual


Global economic growth forecasts for 2012-2014 by IMF , %