The present Section contains projections and estimates of main macroeconomic indicators for Armenia, as well as other countries in the region and the global economy. Sources for projections and estimates are various: Government of Armenia, IMF, World Bank and other international organizations. It may also contain some estimates by independent agencies.
Table 1.1: RA Government’s forecasts of Armenia’s main macroeconomic indicators for 2018-2021, % change
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||
| Actual | Budget 2019 | MTEF 2019-2021 | |||
| GDP | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -9.4 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -4.0 | -4.1 |
| Exports of goods | 10.3 | 14.0 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.6 |
| Imports of goods | 17.5 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
Abbreviations used: Budget 2019– Budget Message of the Government of Armenia for 2019. Budget Law for 2019 was adopted on November 22, 2019;
MTEF 2019-2021– Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia for 2019-2021, adopted on July 10, 2018.
Table 1.2: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia’s main macroeconomic indicators for 2018-2022, % change
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||
| Actual․ | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||
| GDP | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -9.4 | -4.6 | -7.5 | -4.3 | -6.5 | -4.3 | -4.3 |
| Exports of goods | 10.3 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Imports of goods | 17.5 | 0.5 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (April 2019); ADB, Asian Development Outlook (September 2019):
% Table 1.3: IMF, ADB and RA Government’s forecast of Armenia’s main macroeconomic indicators for 2018-2021, %
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| փաստ. | ԱՄՀ | ԱԶԲ | ԲՈՒ | ԱՄՀ | ԱԶԲ | ՄԺԾԾ | ԱՄՀ | ՄԺԾԾ | |
| GDP | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -9.4 | -4.6 | -7.5 | -3.7 | -4.3 | -6.5 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -4.1 |
| Exports of goods | 10.3 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 15.8 | 5.3 | 15.6 |
| Imports of goods | 17.5 | 0.5 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 10.7 |
Abbreviations used: IMF – international Monetary Fund, ADB – Asian Development Bank,
Budget – 2019 Budget Message of the Government of Armenia, MTEF – 2019-2021 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia
IMF forecasts of economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries, %*
*2017-actual
Global economic growth forecasts for 2012-2014 by IMF , %
